There has been some commentary elsewhere on the Internets suggesting that it might more likely to consider crossover voting with the intent of mischief in Greenhills, more so than the voters' consideration for the "current state of affairs" (e.g. War in Iraq, gas prices, housing market, flat wages, health care costs, etc.) driving the larger Democratic turnout. I had indeed made what I think would be a fairly sound assumption that the movement to the Democratic side of the ballot could actually result from the assessment that the community's own view of the situation would drive a better turnout. Challenged on this point, I'll post my thoughts in more detail over the next few days, as time permits.
One method of validation will come once the actual registration patterns are revealed at a household level. I would guess that we will see some of the mischief described above (R->D switches among long term Republicans, following Rush Limbaugh's directive), but not at the level that would account for the difference. Voter turnout, along with the number of new registrants will be another element to look at as well. Each will be a a topic for a later post. And a final point to consider will be declared voting patterns over the past 3 primaries.
To that final point, I think the chart, with vote totals from the last three presidential year primaries, suggests that there might be something happening in Greenhills. There has been a 305% increase in declared Democratic ballots cast in the village at the same time the Republican tally has decreased by nearly 24%.
One method of validation will come once the actual registration patterns are revealed at a household level. I would guess that we will see some of the mischief described above (R->D switches among long term Republicans, following Rush Limbaugh's directive), but not at the level that would account for the difference. Voter turnout, along with the number of new registrants will be another element to look at as well. Each will be a a topic for a later post. And a final point to consider will be declared voting patterns over the past 3 primaries.
To that final point, I think the chart, with vote totals from the last three presidential year primaries, suggests that there might be something happening in Greenhills. There has been a 305% increase in declared Democratic ballots cast in the village at the same time the Republican tally has decreased by nearly 24%.
One election is an anomaly. Three election cycles suggests a trend. More to come on this topic as well.
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